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IMEF rebaja su pronóstico de crecimiento para México en 2019

IMEF rebaja su pronóstico de crecimiento para México en 2019


The Mexican Institute of Finance Executives ( IMEF ) cut its
growth forecast for the country’s economy in 2019 from 1.4 to 1.2 percent and 1.8 to 1.7 percent in 2020, given that it faces a complex and highly uncertain scenario .

At the local level, among the factors that have hit the performance of the economy , there is the global deceleration and transitory events such as fuel shortages , strikes in factories in the north of the country and railway blockades at the beginning of the year.

In addition, the suspension of construction works in Mexico City and the distrust in the private sector to invest are added to the adjustments of the rating agencies to the notes of the country and of Petróleos Mexicanos ( Pemex ).

Regarding the threat of Donald Trump to collect tariffs on Mexican goods, the IMEF stressed that there are no metrics established to evaluate whether the reduction of migrant traffic is sufficient to avoid the imposition of this measure.

Among the risks listed by specialists in the international arena is the possibility of a more extensive trade war between the United States and China, which, if it occurs, would advance the possibility of a recession registering even this same year.

Also, among investors there are fears about the extension of the current expansive phase of the economic cycle.

In the words of Fernando López Macari , national president of the Institute:

“The expansive phases of global cycles have lasted an average of five years since the 1960s. This year we see the ninth year of expansion, with market participants worried that a recession could materialize, at least from a statistical perspective “

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Another factor to consider is the tone that Trump’s re-election campaign will take .

It is possible that his strategy is aligned with an economic rationality, which would imply, for example, that his confrontation with China ends in the short term.

This is what the IMEF warned :

“If Trump opts for a political rationale to instill fear among readers to
stay in the White House, an economic recession could be observed even during the campaign.”

With information from El Financiero and Expansión